Pokémon Booster Pack Pull Rates: Odds for Every Rarity
October 31, 2026 · 3 min read
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In a recent 10-card Pokémon booster pack, you can expect a Double Rare in about 1 in 5 packs, an Illustration Rare in about 1 in 9, and a Special Illustration Rare in roughly 1 in 80 to 1 in 100. Pulling one specific chase card is much harder, often 1 in 500 or worse.
Where these odds come from
The Pokémon Company doesn't publish pull rates. The figures below come from TCGplayer's Authentication Center studies of opened packs, as listed by PullRates in October 2026. We couldn't read the original TCGplayer articles directly, so treat these as a good guide, not exact odds. Smaller samples and very rare cards have the widest margin of error.
Pull rates by set
| Set | Double Rare | Ultra Rare | Illustration Rare | Special Illustration Rare | Mega Hyper Rare | Packs studied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pitch Black | 1 in 5 | 1 in 12 | 1 in 9 | 1 in 80 | 1 in 1,081 | 4,000+ |
| Chaos Rising | 1 in 5 | 1 in 12 | 1 in 9 | 1 in 83 | 1 in 956 | 8,500+ |
| Ascended Heroes | 1 in 5 | 1 in 21 | 1 in 9 | 1 in 70 | 1 in 540 | 2,000+ |
| Mega Evolution | 1 in 5 | 1 in 12 | 1 in 9 | 1 in 101 | 1 in 1,260 | 5,000+ |
Ascended Heroes also has Mega Attack Rares, at about 1 in 29 packs.
Why your chase card is so much harder
The odds above are for any card of that rarity. To get one exact card, you also need the right one from that group. In Mega Evolution, a Special Illustration Rare comes up about once in 101 packs, but one specific Special Illustration Rare is about 1 in 1,008, since the set has 10 of them.
| Set | One specific Special Illustration Rare | One specific Illustration Rare |
|---|---|---|
| Pitch Black | 1 in 480 | 1 in 100 |
| Chaos Rising | 1 in 496 | 1 in 103 |
| Mega Evolution | 1 in 1,008 | 1 in 202 |
| Ascended Heroes | 1 in 1,533 | 1 in 293 |
Smaller sets are often better when you want one exact card, because each rarity has fewer cards to split the odds.
Sets with different odds
Prismatic Evolutions has no Illustration Rare tier. Its Special Illustration Rares show up at about 1 in 45 packs, but there are 32 of them, so one specific card is about 1 in 1,440. It also has Poké Ball foils at about 1 in 3 packs and Master Ball foils at about 1 in 20. This sample was only about 1,200 packs, and the study noted it probably included two unusually strong "Demigod" packs.
30th Celebration uses smaller all-foil packs with a guaranteed Pikachu. The study found Double Rares at about 1 in 5, Illustration Rares at 1 in 5, Special Illustration Rares at 1 in 21 and Futuristic Rares at 1 in 120, from over 3,000 packs. No RGB Rare appeared in that sample, so nobody has a reliable figure for those.
How many packs do you need?
A 1 in 80 chance doesn't mean you'll hit after 80 packs. The chance of at least one hit after opening a number of packs is:
| Packs opened | Chance at 1 in 80 per pack |
|---|---|
| 36 (one booster box) | 36% |
| 80 | 63% |
| 160 | 87% |
| 240 | 95% |
This assumes each pack is independent. Real boxes can vary, and some collectors believe hits are spread more evenly within a box, but we don't have reliable data on that.
Want to see this for yourself without spending anything? Our Pokémon pack opening simulator uses odds in line with these recent sets, though its packs are simplified. Also learn what each label means in our Pokémon card rarity guide.
FAQ
What are the odds of pulling a Special Illustration Rare? Around 1 in 70 to 1 in 101 packs in recent standard sets, based on TCGplayer studies. Special sets can differ a lot.
How many packs are in a booster box? Standard booster display boxes hold 36 packs. Some special sets aren't sold in booster boxes at all.
Does weighing packs tell you what's inside? It's not something to rely on, and buying from a seller whose packs may have been picked through carries its own risk. Buy from a reputable store.
Are pull rates the same in every language? No. Japanese packs in particular are built differently, so don't apply these English-set figures to them.
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